AJIJIC VILLAGE HOMES
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After I checked my email at a poolside bar in Playa del Carmen last week, I checked the news, and read about Sheila Nabb's terrible injuries in Mazatlan.
Nabb, a 37-year-old Calgary office worker, was attacked in an elevator at her five-star resort in the small hours of the morning. Every bone in her face was broken and she faces a long painful recovery.
On my flight back to snowy Ottawa, I watched a TV story about another Canadian attacked in Mazatlan.
Scott Giddy, of Fergus, Ont., was beaten over the head near the same resort last spring.
The TV networks have been playing these stories in heavy rotation, asking whether Canadians should feel safe travelling to Mexico.
These are compelling personal stories, the kind of news that keeps you from clicking your remote, and it is easy for producers to justify this sensationalism because the TV stations are making Canadians aware of the risks of travelling to Mexico, which are real.
But there are risks, also, with a day on the nearest ski hill, with the drive to the ski hill, with taking a cruise in Italy, or even staying locked in your own residence in Canada, where you might slip in the tub and crack your head.
As we become safer and richer, our culture becomes ever more risk averse, and stories like Nabb's and Giddy's loom too large in our thoughts.
It would be unwise, to be sure, to take a holiday in Ciudad Juarez, on the Rio Grande, where ruthless and well-financed drug cartels are engaged in an unbelievably grim war for control of the choke point of the multi-billion-dollar cocaine pipeline that runs from the jungles of Columbia to the noses of your neighbours.
They find bodies all over the place in that unhappy city — often headless, disfigured bodies. Police officers quit their jobs out of mortal terror, and the morgue sometimes runs out of space. It's so bad that hundreds of thousands of locals have fled to safer cities.
But Mexico is not a place. It is a bunch of places, and some of them are safer than places in Canada.
I had a great time in Yucatan province last week, inland from Playa del Carmen. We rented a car and drove to Chichen Itza, which is stunning, and spent a happy night at a fiesta among the welcoming people of the colonial city of Vallodilid, watching proud young people dancing in beautiful, hand-embroidered clothes.
The murder rate in Yucatan is 2 per 100,000. Thunder Bay's murder rate is 4.2 per 100,000.
In 2011, six Canadians were murdered in Mexico, which is six tragedies, but 1.6 million Canadians went there — enough to fill the Air Canada Centre 80 times.
In 2010, according to crime statistics compiled by the Department of Foreign Affairs, four Canadians were killed in Mexico, two in the Dominican Republic, one in Costa Rica, five in the United States and none in Cuba or Costa Rica.
When you divide the number of murders by the number of tourists, you get one death per 8.5 million in the United States, one per 400,000 in Mexico and the Dominican Republic and one per 150,000 in Costa Rica.
But I'm not sure there's even any point to giving it that much thought, because all the numbers are so low. In Mexico in 2010, 21 Canadians died in accidents and 76 died of natural causes, many among the 60,000 retirees who live there.
And last week many people were bashed on the head here in Canada.
The expatriates I spoke to in the lovely beachside bars of Tulum, down the coast from Cancun, are more worried about potholes than being murdered.
In Canada, we have nine road fatalities per year per 100,000 inhabitants. Compare that number to the number of Canadians murdered in Mexico, and you have to come to the conclusion that crime in Mexico is not worth thinking about very much.
That doesn't mean you can't find trouble. You can find trouble in Thunder Bay if you go looking for it.
Don't go to Ciudad Juarez. Wherever you go, don't get hammered and wander around with your wallet bulging in your back pocket. Get your hotel to call you a taxi. Don't drive at night. Don't bring a prostitute back to your hotel room. Don't buy drugs. If you go out at night, stay on busy, well-lit streets.
Keep your eyes open but don't think about it too much. Obsessing about the tragic stories of the small number of people who get attacked or murdered in Mexico distorts our risk calculations and makes us needlessly fearful.
Mexico is amazing. The chances of anything bad happening to you there are small.
Do you want to live your life obsessing about tiny risks or do you want to enjoy the fiesta?
Surviving in Mexico not so hard
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The Facts Concerning Violent Crimes
Committed Against US Tourists in Mexico
By Jim Scherrer
This article is prepared in response to an extremely misleading and obviously
biased piece recently published on a site known as
www.OfficialWire.com and shown under the topic of Official Spin; and spin it
is! It was written by Derek Armstrong and posted on his website, Crime Report
USA, as follows:
Mexico the Most Dangerous Country for Americans
Wednesday, December 23, 2009 at 3:39PM
U.S. Department of State Warns Largest Number of Non Natural Deaths Occur in
Mexico.
Derek Armstrong, Chief Crime Correspondent
Crime Report USA: Mexico is overwhelmingly the most dangerous place for
non-service Americans, topping the list of destinations with the highest "Non
Natural Deaths", according to the US Department of State:
Top 5 Countries for Non Natural Deaths
Mexico 651
Iraq 82
Costa Rica 69
Thailand 67
Germany 63
Since shocking and misleading headlines such as "Mexico the Most Dangerous
Country for Americans" are designed to be attention grabbing, tourists that read
such nonsense might want to do their homework before considering vacation
destinations in Mexico; they must understand the facts and not be frightened by
ridiculous fear tactics put forth by those with ulterior motives.
At first glance, the above article seems to indicate 651 non natural deaths
occurred in Mexico last year, however, when the reader digs deeper into the
article he finds that the data was obtained over a three year period from 2006
through 2008, resulting in about 220 non natural US deaths per year in Mexico.
Of the 220 non natural deaths per year, approximately 50 are homicides, the
balance being auto accidents, drownings, suicides, etc. per the US Department of
State.
Next, the reader needs to understand that approximately 20 million Americans
visit Mexico each year, far more than any other country in the world per the US
Dept Commerce. Therefore, we know that about 50 individuals out of every 20
million US visitors to Mexico are murdered during a violent crime every year
while in Mexico.
Okay, let's take it a step further; let's determine where in Mexico these
violent crimes take place. When reviewing the data presented by the US
Department of State, you'll see that the majority of these violent crimes occur
in the border towns such as Ciudad Juarez and Tijuana.
Therefore, the next time you plan your winter vacation you might want to avoid
these areas; they're probably about as dangerous as Chicago, Detroit, or Los
Angeles! Instead of vacationing in beautiful downtown Juarez, you might want to
consider a resort destination such as Cancun, Cozumel, Cabo San Lucas, Ixtapa/Zihuatanejo,
Acapulco, Huatulco, or Puerto Vallarta.
As 13 year residents of Puerto Vallarta, we can attest to the safety of this
magnificent resort destination south of the border where the possession of hand
guns is prohibited and violent crime is virtually nonexistent. For proof of this
claim, we'll first determine the number of US citizens that visit PV annually
and then get the facts related to violent crime in the area.
There are in excess of 200 cruise ships that visit PV from the US every year
with an average of more than 2,000 passengers each; i.e. approximately 400,000
passengers arriving annually. During the six month "high season", PV receives
more than 50 international flights daily. Let's assume that 40 are from the US
carrying an average of 100 passengers on each plane; that's more than 700,000
passengers arriving by air during the six winter months.
Next, let's assume that 30 planes arrive daily in PV during the six summer
months of which 20 are from the US; that's another 350,000 passengers arriving
by air during the "low season".
Finally, we'll assume that another 50,000 people drive to PV every year.
Totaling these conservative numbers, we find that at least 1.5 million tourists
from the US visit Vallarta annually. A number of websites such as
http://www.travels.com/destinations/...ta-information
put the total number of visitors at 2 million, others such as
http://www.puertovallarta.net/fast_f...o_vallarta.php
peg it at 2.2 million and assuming at least 75% are from the US, our estimate of
1.5 million US visitors to PV per year is quite accurate.
Now, let's return to the data from the US Department of State. You will notice
that during 2008, there were merely five non natural deaths of US visitors in
Puerto Vallarta and only one was a homicide. (Chances are that he was doing
something or involved with something that he shouldn't have been!). That's one
violent death out of 1.5 million visitors for the year or less than 0.7 per
million.
According to US government provided data, the US has 6.2 violent deaths annually
per 100,000 residents. This information is readily available at the US Bureau of
Justice and on other websites such as
http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/FASTATS/homicide.htm.
In other words, we have 62 homicides or violent crimes resulting in death per
million residents in the US, or 93 homicides per 1.5 million; i.e., 93 times as
many as in Puerto Vallarta!
You'll notice that the author of the referenced article is from Toronto, Canada;
a beautiful city with a reputation for being quite safe, having a homicide rate
of only 3.1 homicides per 100,000 residents per the Toronto Police Department or
approximately half of that in the US.
Still, that equates to 31 per million residents or 46 murders per 1.5 million
people, i.e. nearly 50 times as many as the number of Americans murdered in
Puerto Vallarta, Mexico!
For example, in 2007, Toronto, with a population of 2,750,000 inhabitants,
experienced 84 homicides or approximately 31 per million people.
You'll also notice that the author of the article publishes his propaganda on
sites where feedback and comments are impossible; is it any wonder? There have
been plenty of knowledgeable folks that have read preposterous articles such as
the one addressed above and they too, are voicing their opinions and commenting
on websites such as
www.TheTruthAboutMexico.com.
For the most part, these are people with intimate knowledge of Mexico and if it
were dangerous for Americans in Mexico, they probably wouldn't be living or
vacationing there on a routine basis.
(Yes, I am biased and yes, I have an axe to grind [representing real estate
buyers in Puerto Vallarta]; but more importantly, I feel it imperative for
someone to set the record straight and not allow misleading propaganda to be
published on the Internet without being challenged)
Finally, the above data tends to indicate that living in Mexican resort areas
such as Puerto Vallarta is nearly 100 times safer than living in the US and 50
times safer than in Toronto, however this is really not the case since the data
is skewed by the element of time.
The millions of Americans living in the US or Toronto are permanent residents
spending 52 weeks per year at home whereas the Americans visiting PV are only
temporary.
In order to adjust for this time differential, the following assumptions must be
made: Those 400,000 cruise boat passengers spend only one day in town, those
1,050,000 passengers arriving by air spend an average of 10 days in town, and
half of the remaining 50,000 that consider themselves to be American expats live
in PV only during the "high season" while the other half live here year round
resulting in an average for this group of 40 weeks per year in Vallarta.
The following calculations show that this is equivalent to 68,200 Americans
living full time in Puerto Vallarta.
400,000 cruise x 1day + 1,050,000 air x 10 days + 50,000 expats x 280 days =
year year year
400,000 days + 10,500,000 days + 14,000,000 days = 24,900,000 days
year year year year
24,900,000 days x year = 68,200 full time expats in PV
year 365 days
One American homicide per year in PV per 68,200 American expats equates to 14.6
per million or less than half experienced at the safe home town of the author of
the misleading article and 1/4 as many as in the US.
In summarizing, the next time someone insinuates that traveling to or
vacationing in Mexico is dangerous for Americans, you can present the facts to
them. Hopefully, after reviewing this analytical approach with the documented
facts and figures provided by the US government, you'll feel much more
comfortable and inclined to visit our beautiful Paradise south of the border....
Jim Scherrer has owned property in Puerto Vallarta, Mexico for 26 years and
resided there for the past twelve years. The mission of his series of more than
70 articles pertaining to retirement in Puerto Vallarta is to reveal the recent
changes that have occurred in Vallarta while dispelling the misconceptions about
living conditions in Mexico. For the full series of articles regarding travel to
and retirement in Vallarta as well as pertinent Puerto Vallarta links, please
visit us at PVREBA.
http://pvreba.com
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Mexico: safer than Canada
Aug 27th 2010, 14:36 by T.W. | MEXICO CITY (The Economist)
Before I am buried an avalanche of
polite Canadian emails, I should acknowledge that comparing an entire country
with one quiet state is hardly fair: there are no doubt parts of Canada where
no-one has been so much as kicked in the shin for decades. But Mexico’s
predicament is worth highlighting, because the extreme violence around its
border with the United States colours people’s view of the rest of the
country, though much of it is pretty quiet. A third of Mexico’s states hover
around 5 murders per 100,000, about the same rate as the United States.
Another third are around 8 per 100,000, similar to Thailand, for instance. A
handful of states have rates in the teens—like Russia, say—and a couple are in
the low twenties, a little lower than Brazil’s average. Then you have the
chaos of the four very violent states, which sends the average soaring.
The carnage in Mexico’s badlands is not to be underestimated, and nor does it
seem to be getting any better. Business travellers should certainly watch out
in places such as Juárez and, these days, even in cities such as Monterrey.
But people doing business south of the Rio Grande should remember that, even
on average, Mexico is a less murderous country than places such as Brazil, and
that once you avoid the hotspots, it’s downright safe.
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One US Journalist’s
nonconformist view of Mexico
Mexico: safer than Canada Aug 27th 2010, 14:36 by T.W. | MEXICO CITY OK, so the
headline is a bit of a fib. But a report on Mexico’s security situation
has painted a more detailed picture than the one we hear about in the news
most of the time. When I told friends I was moving to Mexico City, some
asked if I would be provided with a bodyguard (no). Business travellers
are thinking twice about coming, according to chambers of commerce here.
But a detailed breakdown of violence released this week shows that, if you
pick your state, you’re as safe—or safer—than in any other North American
country. Before I am
buried an avalanche of polite Canadian emails, I should acknowledge that
comparing an entire country with one quiet state is hardly fair: there are
no doubt parts of Canada where no-one has been so much as kicked in the
shin for decades. But Mexico’s predicament is worth highlighting, because
the extreme violence around its border with the United States colors
people’s view of the rest of the country, though much of it is pretty
quiet. A third of Mexico’s states hover around 5 murders per 100,000,
about the same rate as the United States. Another third are around 8 per
100,000, similar to Thailand, for instance. A handful of states have rates
in the teens—like Russia, say—and a couple are in the low twenties, a
little lower than Brazil’s average. Then you have the chaos of the four
very violent states, which sends the average soaring.
Mexico's big hope: get 5 million U.S. retireesBY ANDRES OPPENHEIMER (April 17, 2010)aoppenheimer@MiamiHerald.com
MEXICO CITY -- Mexico is silently
working on proposals aimed at drawing millions of U.S. retirees to this
country, which could eventually lead to the most ambitious U.S.-Mexican
project since the 1994 North American Free Trade Agreement.
President Felipe Calderón is likely to propose the first steps toward expanding U.S. retirement benefits and medical tourism to Mexico when he goes to Washington on an official visit May 19, according to well-placed officials here. If not then, he will raise the issue later this year, they say. ``It's one of the pillars of our plans to trigger economic and social well-being in both countries,'' Mexico's ambassador to the United States Arturo Sarukhan told me. ``We will be seeking to increasingly discuss this issue in coming months and years.'' Calderón brought it up during a U.S.-Canada-Mexico summit in Guadalajara in August last year, but President Barack Obama asked him to shelve the idea until he was able to pass healthcare reform, another official told me. Now that Congress has passed healthcare reform, Calderón is preparing to charge ahead.
Would you like to live well in retirement? Many U.S. retirees are being lured by warm weather and a low cost of living to
Laura Cohn, Associate Editor interviewed Akaisha for this article.From Kiplinger's Personal Finance magazine, July 2010
The Wall Street Journal: “Big Investors Call: Buy Mexico”U.S. Investors Go South, Seek Safe Place for Cash in Real Estate Mexico City War Anxieties abroad, sluggish returns at home and Mexico’s recent recognition as investment-grade by all three major U.S. credit-rating agencies are behind the surge of U.S. institutional cash seeking a haven in Mexican real estate. According to industry analysts in both countries, more than $1 billion has washed into Mexico from U.S. institutional investors over the past eight months, and a lot more is on the way. The Torre Mayor, a $250 million office tower built by Canada’s Reichman clan, is about to open just west of the Polanco-Palmas district. Latin America’s tallest office building at 55 stories, about a fourth of its 850,000 square feet has already been leased to Deloitte & Touche LLC. Other top players include the leasing arm of GE Capital and top real-estate investment trust like San Francisco’s AMB Property Corp. and Denver’s Prologis, have quietly built portfolios totaling billions in loads and equity holdings. GE Mexico, with $1.3 billion in the market, is now the biggest player in local real estate. "We’re still in the early innings in Mexico," says Gary Garrabrant of Chicago-based Equity International Properties, part of the Sam Zell family of real-estate operators. The privately held Equity International Properties unit various Mexican ventures since 2001, investing $75 million with Spain’s NH Hoteles in a chain of business-oriented hotels, acquiring a $30 million stake in Desarrolladora Homex, a builder of low-cost housing, and putting another $100 million into a joint venture called Corporate Properties of the Americas with Denver-based Black Creek Capital to develop industrial parks. 1. This week, Corporate Properties of the Americans closed a sale of a $300 million equity position to the Washington State Investment Board, the first U.S. public employees fund to invest directly in Mexican real estate. With concern that a U.S. real-estate bubble may be moving toward its bursting point, investing south of the border may seem unnecessarily risky to some. Yet developers like Black Creek Capital’s Jim Mulvihill See Mexico as a hedge against U.S. volatility. The commercial and industrial real-estate markets are so underdeveloped in Mexico, Mr. Mulvihill says, "you can still buy quality. In the U.S., all the quality deals are gone." The kinds of deals his company is structuring are tailor made for U.S. institutional investors, the developer explains, because they’re dollar-denominated and, in the case of industrial parks, guaranteed by the prime tenant. Even during the recent slowdown, with many electronics manufacturers-decamping to lower-cost sites in Asia, rents are paid in full. "Companies take a write-down," Mr. Mulvhill says, but his revenue stream remains uninterrupted.
Something for Title Insurers Another attraction: U.S. title insurers can now operate in Mexico, and tenants feel confident that leases and construction contracts signed south of the border are enforceable under Mexican civil law. Compared with China, where private land ownership is still a controversial concept in some circles, investing even in a cooling Mexican manufacturing sector offers a return adequately balanced with risk. U.S. institutions are earning premiums of as much as 5% over similar real-estate investments at home, developers say. In addition to its industrial real-estate partnership with the Zell group, Black Creek Capital has a second Mexico operation, Mexico Retail Partners that develops sites for American "big box" retailers like Wal-Mart Stores Inc., Costco Wholesale Corp. and Home Depot Inc. Black Creek expects to open as many as 10 Home Depot stores a year in Mexico, as the Atlanta based retailer increases its presence south of the border. With each new project representing a $50 million transaction, Black Creek will complete upward of $500 million in contracts in each of the next three years, the company’s chairman says, and will seek additional capital from U.S. institutions this year. Hines, and international real-estate firm, is also raising capital to increase its activity in Mexico. Two real-estate funds launched by the Houston firm in the mid-1990s dedicated to emerging markets now have about 30% of their assets in Mexico, or about $200 million, raised mainly from insurance companies and private investment pools. A third fund, with assets of around $400 million, is being contemplated for later this year. Last week Hines chased out on investments the company mad in 1997, selling the Torredel Angel office tower on Mexico City’s Paseo de la Reforma and two industrial parks in Queretaro and Guadalajara. The package, a total of $110 million, represented the largest commercial real-estate transaction ever completed in Mexico. The proceeds will likely be rolled into Hines’s new fund. Luis Gutierrez, G. Accionâ’s chief executive officer, says the decision last year by Standard & Poor’s to grant an investment grade rating on Mexico’s sovereign debt, two years after both Fitch and Moody’s Investors Service issued similar upgrades, freed a lot of institutions to increase their exposure to Mexico. "of course, the situation in the U.S., with its soft markets and excess liquidity, helps us, too," says Mr. Gutierrez. The best indicator of real estate’s may be the behavior of high-worth Mexicans, who usually park their money offshore. Local capital is moving back into the market, says Sandor Valner of merchant bank Valor Consultores. His group launched two funds, totaling $100 million, last year to invest in new hotel construction and hotel sale-leasebacks, tapping Mexico City’s country-club set for investors.
The Mexico They Never Leftby Roger Toll, former Editor of Mexico City News (Delta Sky Magazine, February 2006) Near Guadalajara, the lakeside town of Ajijic has proven irresistible to many Americans. Here's why. If the cherished ideals of human unity and harmony between cultures remain hard to achieve, maybe we'd best look to a basic biological concept for a solution. Symbiosis, the dictionary says, is the life association of two dissimilar organisms for mutual benefit. I thought of this on a recent visit to Ajijic (pronounced "ah-HEE-heek"), the prettiest of several towns laced together by a two-lane highway running along the northwest shore of Mexico's largest lake, Chapala, 45 minutes south of Guadalajara. It is midsummer, the rainy season, where the air is soft and the surrounding mountains turn an exuberant tropical green. The setting is bucolic, Old World, with a rustic church and peaceful plaza, and a gazebo waiting for a band to arrive. Cobblestone streets slow traffic to a genteel crawl, and people come and go, murmuring a polite "buenos dias" as they amble by. more ...
Travel DestinationCharming Central MexicoFor many of us gringos pronouncing the village's name Ajijic (A-HEE-HEEK) is almost as difficult as getting there. Nestled on the northern shore of Lake Chapala, Mexico's largest body of fresh water, the historic Mexican village of Ajijic is experiencing an unprecedented surge of los touristas. They're coming for the weather, the affordability, the culture and the warm hospitality of the residents of this 400+ year old village. more...
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